Current manual method + completed v1.3c baseline + v1.5.3b RHP live run · 25 June 2026

BD Trading 2026 — Current Method and Evidence

A current-state dashboard separating the live human method, the completed v1.3c real-1m evidence and the in-progress v1.5.3b RHP stage-atomic research run.

Evidence sources: completed v1.3c extract and LIVE_EXTRACT_BDTA_V153B_RHP_SLIM_FOR_GPT_20260625_131601.zip. Offline historical replay with virtual fills; no live orders.

Completed v1.3c result

Replay tasks

300,000

100% complete

Candidate configurations

10,000

60,000 candidate tests

Full 6/6 configurations

119

1.19% of all configurations

Candidate tests beating controls

4,785

7.98% of 60,000

Current conclusion: the arena found a small but persistent robust frontier. Most mutations failed against matched controls, while 119 configurations beat them by profile score on BTC, ETH and SOL under both zero and realistic cost models. That is useful research evidence, not a live-profit guarantee.

What was actually tested

Search design

Dimension	v1.3c setting
Markets	BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSDT
Historical interval	1 January–14 June 2026
Candidate tests	10,000 configurations × 3 assets × 2 cost cases = 60,000
Matched controls	4 controls per candidate test = 240,000 control rows
Zero-cost case	0 fee, 0 slippage, 0 funding
Realistic-cost case	2 bps fee, 1 bp slippage, 0.5 bps funding per 8h
Wallet context	Fixed virtual $500 baseline at 300×; measurement context, not a universal rejection gate

Real-1m data audit

Symbol	Rows	Period	Status
BTCUSDT	236,161	2026-01-01 → 2026-06-14	PASS
ETHUSDT	236,161	2026-01-01 → 2026-06-14	PASS
SOLUSDT	236,161	2026-01-01 → 2026-06-14	PASS

Total audited candles: 708,483. The audit found no hidden gaps over 1.5 minutes, duplicates or invalid OHLC rows.

The 119 full 6/6 configurations

6/6 means a configuration beat its best matched control by the profile-specific score on all three assets under both cost cases. It does not mean it had the highest raw PnL in every row.

P0 Survival Max

full 6/6 configurations

P1 Conservative

full 6/6 configurations

P2 Balanced

full 6/6 configurations

P3 Aggressive

full 6/6 configurations

P4 Moonshot

full 6/6 configurations

P5 Tiny-Wallet Blast

full 6/6 configurations

Representative top robust seed from each risk lane

Lane	Policy	Avg MTM	Worst MTM	Avg score lift	Worst score lift
P0 Survival Max	`deep_p0_t500_sep300_m50_b1p1_same3_83dc7823`	$220.69	$166.04	+127.49	+76.68
P1 Conservative	`deep_p1_t2000_sep2000_m40_b1p0125_flat3_ce1751a4`	$202.12	$147.60	+120.72	+84.39
P2 Balanced	`deep_p2_t2000_sep1100_m50_b1p15_none_9cb5d2d0`	$240.14	$201.91	+168.55	+26.12
P3 Aggressive	`deep_p3_t1600_sep700_m50_b1p5525_none_71657874`	$468.31	$399.48	+436.67	+379.24
P4 Moonshot	`deep_p4_t2000_sep1100_m60_b3p6_none_4d8476d0`	$922.13	$772.98	+451.52	+21.06
P5 Tiny-Wallet Blast	`deep_p5_t2000_sep500_m60_b2p76_flat5_68e39a6f`	$853.98	$626.96	+582.30	+465.72

Current candidate highlights

Strongest cross-asset P5 seed

deep_p5_t2000_sep500_m60_b2p76_flat5_68e39a6f

It achieved 6/6 with an average MTM of $853.98, a worst MTM of $626.96, and a minimum score lift of +465.72.

Realistic-cost market	Realized	MTM
BTC	$494.43	$626.96
ETH	$483.18	$905.02
SOL	$475.19	$887.82

Highest single-row PnL

deep_p5_t1000_sep700_m30_b7p2_same3_ea13fefc on ETH.

Realistic-cost result from the fixed-$500 baseline: +$1,434.52 realized, +$1,736.20 MTM, approximately 67.75% max drawdown.

This is a strong P5 result, not the universal safest choice.

Strong P3 cross-asset branch

deep_p3_t1600_sep700_m50_b1p5525_none_71657874

6/6, average MTM $468.31, worst MTM $399.48, worst score lift +379.24.

Capital-truth watchlist

deep_p4_t1000_sep300_m30_b5p4_same5_37ae672d reached +$2,175.88 MTM and +$816.64 realized on SOL with realistic costs before the fixed-$500 drawdown stop ended the path.

It is not discarded. v1.4 must replay the full path and calculate the capital actually required.

Current BD manual hedge-separation method

The manual method is now shown separately from the old v1.3c optimizer seeds and from the in-progress v1.5.3b arena. The quantities below are rounded cross-asset base clips.

SOL base per leg

1 SOL

LONG + SHORT

BTC base per leg

0.001 BTC

LONG + SHORT

ETH base per leg

0.04 ETH

LONG + SHORT

Working context

300×

small clips, cross-margin / wallet-silo logic

Core operating cycle

Open equal rounded base quantities LONG and SHORT.
Manage the profitable and losing books independently.
First losing-side add is commonly considered near −200% ROE; later thresholds and sizes may roughly double.
Close rescue excess around +2% on that added clip and keep the intended core.
Re-anchor a badly displaced loser and use a large rescue only after stabilization.

Winner and large-rescue handling

Progressively protect/realize the winner around +200%, +400% and +500% ROE.
On a rapid confirmed continuation, add roughly 2–3× to the winning leg; retained cores may grow through cycles, for example 2 → 4 → 8 SOL.
A stabilized SOL rescue may add 10–20 SOL, then close most at +1–2% and retain about 2 SOL.
Delayed-add is an experimental risk governor, not yet promoted as alpha.
Funding, spread, slippage and liquidation risk remain even on zero-fee pairs.

Open the complete current manual method →

Historical v1.3c references

Reference	Role	Why it remains
P2 seed	Completed narrower v1.3c engine	Robust 6/6 evidence, but not the current manual protocol.
P5 seed	Historical all-risk surface	Shows high PnL together with extreme drawdown and capital-at-risk.

How to read the three layers correctly

Manual authority

Current rounded bases: 1 SOL, 0.001 BTC, 0.04 ETH per side.
Includes adverse ladder, 2–3× winner adds, staged winner protection, re-anchor and large rescue.
Some actions remain structure-dependent human decisions.

v1.3c authority

Completed 300,000-task real-1m replay.
Tested narrower fixed re-anchor + rescue + excess-close semantics.
Did not execute the full current winner-side or discretionary rescue method.

v1.5.3b authority

Corrected sizing and stage-specific barscope.
Stage-atomic retry/resume and matched-control research.
Still awaiting completion of Daily, Weekly, Walkforward and Locked Holdout.

No cross-layer overclaim: a manual rule is not arena-proven until encoded causally and tested against controls; a discovery leader is not a final winner before locked holdout; a historical v1.3c seed is not automatically the current manual protocol.

v1.5.3b RHP live extract — stage-atomic run

Latest live checkpoint: LIVE_EXTRACT_BDTA_V153B_RHP_SLIM_FOR_GPT_20260625_131601.zip. This is still an in-progress research run, not a final winner report.

Current stage

Daily24h

08_DAILY24H_DISCOVERY running

Completed tasks

74,728

0 task-attempt errors in extract

Daily active time

6.75h

28.1% of 24h target observed

Sizing contract

1 / .001 / .04

SOL / BTC / ETH asset-parity lane

What is better now: v1.5.3b fixes the v1.5.3a stage-skip/MemoryError problem in this extract. Smoke, Standard, Strict Controls and Deep6h are complete; Daily24h is running; no retry error is visible.

Stage progress

Stage	Status	PASS tasks	Active time
04_SMOKE_DISCOVERY	complete	5,112	0.08h
05_STANDARD_DISCOVERY	complete	43,092	5.47h
06_STRICT_CONTROLS	complete	4,104	1.80h
07_DEEP6H_DISCOVERY	complete	10,414	6.00h
08_DAILY24H_DISCOVERY	running	12,006	6.75h

Corrected test contract

Smoke	6,000-bar scope
Standard	50,000-bar scope
Strict controls	full 236,161-row scope
Deep/Daily	180,000-bar scope
Primary ranking	fixed-notional 100 USDT per leg
Asset-parity diagnostic	1 SOL, 0.001 BTC, 0.04 ETH

Control caution: the root candidate_vs_matched_controls.csv in this extract reflects the latest completed Deep6h discovery report and uses global v1.4.2a controls. Candidate-specific controls are present in the strict-control stage, but final promotion should wait for the locked holdout/control-aware verdict.

Daily24h partial watch-list

Family	Program	Rows	Median PnL	Worst PnL	Survived
clock_phase_control	`AI15-CLOCK_PHASE_CONTRO-1405551790`	17	$1,189.03	$-112.99	76%
volatility_budgeted_rescue	`AI15-VOLATILITY_BUDGETE-80befdc946`	17	$508.83	$236.26	47%
clock_phase_control	`AI15-CLOCK_PHASE_CONTRO-e1e4f05a0b`	17	$180.63	$-321.37	65%
volatility_budgeted_rescue	`AI15-VOLATILITY_BUDGETE-1d417ab897`	17	$86.47	$-115.61	100%
fractal_coherence_switch	`AI15-FRACTAL_COHERENCE_-5060b177af`	17	$41.49	$-89.02	88%

Deep6h robust-score leaders

Family	Program	Score	Median FC	Worst FC
trend_exhaustion_handoff	`AI15-TREND_EXHAUSTION_H-db9986c439`	169.66	$804.78	$45.54
multi_horizon_pressure	`AI15-MULTI_HORIZON_PRES-330ab0df2a`	152.96	$128.75	$1.61
multi_horizon_pressure	`AI15-MULTI_HORIZON_PRES-9c24860cb1`	132.32	$30.88	$1.50
pi_phase_gate	`AI15-PI_PHASE_GATE-15987285bb`	109.43	$903.28	$28.47
inventory_corridor_rescue	`AI15-INVENTORY_CORRIDOR-f7371b8ba5`	105.69	$308.00	$-51.16

Do not overclaim yet: high force-close PnL remains a hypothesis until Daily24h, Weekly168h, Walkforward and Locked Holdout finish. Treat these rows as seed candidates, not proven live edges.

Next research gate after v1.5.3b

Finish v1.5.3b

Complete Daily24h, Weekly168h, Walkforward and Locked Holdout before final candidate promotion.

Encode manual parity

Translate the −200% ladder, 2–3× winner adds, staged protection, re-anchor and bounded 10–20 SOL rescue into causal programs.

Capital and control truth

Require candidate-specific controls and report minimum surviving wallet, notional, drawdown, liquidation buffer and open-tail dependency.

v1.3c remains an immutable historical baseline; v1.5.3b is the active research lineage. Manual-method parity should be additive and use new program identities.