Current evidence dashboard for the offline Ultimate BD Trading Arena and the HSR PiX hedge-separation line. The completed v1.2 master run fixed the feed-forward/event-integrity proof chain; v1.3-real1m is now running a long optimizer on real BTC/ETH/SOL 1-minute candles with matched controls and zero/realistic cost cases.
Generated from project bundles and live extracts through 15 June 2026: v0.6.4 weekend, v0.7c newseed promoter, accepted v0.8, completed v0.9 STANDARD, HSR PiX v1.0, v1.1 caveat evidence, final HSR PiX v1.2 extract LIVE_EXTRACT_HSR_PIX_V12_FOR_GPT_20260615_002010.zip, and running v1.3-real1m optimizer extract LIVE_EXTRACT_HSR_PIX_REAL1M_V13_FOR_GPT_20260615_195814.zip.
reanchor_enabled / mega_rescue_enabled behavior instead of only carrying policy names. This is a clean offline validation pass, not permission to trade live. The next proof gate is now active: v1.3-real1m is running a 300,000-task deep optimizer on real BTC/ETH/SOL 1m candles with matched controls and cost stress.This is the most important table in the document: it shows the metric behind each dollar amount.
| Evidence view | Strategy | Profit $ shown | Meaning | Survival | Risk / max open loss | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.6.4 raw moonshot top | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000051_sh2_266_moon_keep_4x_base_p0p03 | $1,476,488 | Median raw final profit per replay, risk ignored | 67.5% | $4,279,247 | Huge but dangerous; not comparable to v0.8 median table |
| v0.6.4 $10k-risk scaled top, any risk | v064_large_runner_core_000016_sh2_113_core_keep_8x_base_p0p03 | $12,891.74 | Estimated profit if scaled to $10k risk budget | 0.0% | $114,045.05 | This is the “thousands” memory, but top row is account-killer |
| v0.6.4 $10k-risk scaled, 100% survival | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0381_sh2_288_eff | $3,126.25 | Estimated profit with survival filter | 100.0% | $29,582.42 | Still thousands; much better comparison seed for v0.9 |
| v0.7c promoter top MTM | v07c_mdl_dcc_inverse_probe_0000_db832aa4 | $183.14 | Median mark-to-market in promoter run | 100.0% | $1,747.28 | Bridge era; stronger than v0.8 median but still not old moonshot scale |
| v0.8 STANDARD top median | v07e_v064_large_runner_core_0000_3394a6c6 · demon | $12.68 | Median per replay; separate Σ test MTM is $3,050.17 | 100.0% | $17.10 | Small median, but low open loss and $3k+ test-case sum |
| v0.8 DEEP top median | v07e_control_simple_ladder_0000_e4e2811d · classic | $11.01 | Median per replay; separate Σ test MTM is $6,363.45 | 100.0% | $141.13 | Top is a hard control; v0.9 candidates must beat it |
| HSR PiX v1.2 Wallet Stress P5 | reanchor_then_snap_p5_t1000_sep1500_m50_same3 | $109.59 MTM / $86.59 realized | Profiled tiny-wallet branch in clean v1.2 offline replay | 100.0% | Wallet DD 0.70% in this replay model | Good offline signal; real 1m validation still required |
| HSR PiX v1.2 Mega Rescue Stress P5 | reanchor_then_snap_p5_t1000_sep1500_m50_same3 | $461.62 MTM / $364.51 realized | Largest completed v1.2 stress winner | 100.0% | Wallet DD 0.92% in this replay model | High-upside profile branch, not safe universal setting |
This dashboard remains the main v0.9 evidence page. The new HSR PiX work is intentionally separate: one focused trading recipe, tested in its own standalone arena so the signal is not mixed with the larger v0.9 strategy bank.
The full collapsed table now lives in BD_Hedge_Separation_PiX_Strategy_Explainer.html#manual-protocol. This dashboard keeps only the pointer because its job is broad evidence comparison, not manual execution notes.
Current working manual sketch: LONG 1 SOL + SHORT 1 SOL, add +1 SOL to the profitable side near +300% ROE, rescue the losing side by staged doubling only when cushion/margin are sufficient, and reduce excess aggressively near average entry / +2% to +10% ROE.
The new recipe is a focused constant-hedge rescue idea: open LONG and SHORT together, add to the adverse side using fixed/geometric/Fib/PiX ladders, keep a dynamic core after recovery, and trail profitable tranches with a 100% reserve. The first compact run found positive signals worth a full standard/deep test.
It is not a v0.9 promotion and not a live claim. It needs its own anti-overfit arena, full control set, multi-universe validation, cross-margin plus isolated-side audit, and final MTM/open-tail ranking before we trust anything.
| Candidate type | Fresh30 survival | Median MTM | Median realized | Median unrealized | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw highest MTM: fixed 200 linear + add 2× current + keep geometric | 100% | +$5,170.95 | +$16.53 | +$5,150.65 | Powerful separation, but dirty/open-tail heavy. |
| Cleaner Fib/PiX: Fib loss + base-multiple PiX + keep base + trail100 | 100% | +$1,843.46 | +$1,702.71 | +$148.37 | More interesting because profit is mostly realized. |
| PiX-heavy: PiX π/2 loss + base-multiple PiX + keep PiX + trail100 | 100% | +$1,744.16 | +$445.79 | +$1,264.67 | Strong worst-seed result, but still unrealized-heavy. |
This is the newer evidence from LIVE_EXTRACT_HSR_PIX_V10_FOR_GPT_20260611_083536.zip. It is not a live claim. It says the replay arena is now finding a meaningful parameter surface for huge rescue adds after stabilization.
| Risk branch | Representative family | What v1.0 says | Good for | Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P0/P1 safer | mega_snap_average_10x_flat8m | 100% positive in the key complete stages observed; no ruin in Long/Longer/Deep/Fresh. | Survivability-first / conservative profiles. | Lower profit than 15x/20x; still needs wallet stress and matched controls. |
| P2/P3 middle | mega_snap_average_15x_flat8m | More profit than 10x with higher open-loss pressure; no ruin observed in the complete key stages. | Balanced to aggressive profiles. | Long/Longer open-loss pressure was materially higher than 10x. |
| P4/P5 moonshot | mega_snap_average_20x_flat8m | Strongest Deep/Fresh MTM; also showed ruin in Long/Longer and worst MTM near -82.8 in the bad branch. | Small-wallet, high-risk blast tests only. | Not a universal setting. Must be explicitly wallet-budgeted and risk-labelled. |
The arena did not merely find an old Sync/ZZ/DCC signal. It found the specific hedge-rescue mechanism BD described: large losing-side snap-average after stabilization, excess close near small price profit, and survivor core left open.
v1.0 mostly tested direct mega rescue. It did not fully model BD's manual re-anchor step; v1.1 exposed that proof needed event-preserving feed-forward; v1.2 now validates that preservation in offline replay.
This is the completed evidence from LIVE_EXTRACT_HSR_PIX_V12_FOR_GPT_20260615_002010.zip. It fixes the v1.1 feed-forward/config-preservation bug and keeps P0–P5 ranked separately. This is still offline replay research: synthetic 1-minute paths constrained by real SOLUSDT daily OHLC, not real exchange 1m data.
Stages 13 and 14 triaged outputs_hsr_pix_v12_WALLET_STRESS; this is the most useful current manual/bot-rule source.
| Profile | Best tuple | MTM PnL | Realized PnL | Wallet DD | Survival | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P0_SURVIVAL_MAX | t300 · sep500 · m10 · flat5 | +$9.31 | +$1.20 | 1.25% | 100% | survival-first real re-anchor |
P1_CONSERVATIVE | t500 · sep500 · m12 · flat3 | +$14.65 | +$2.61 | 1.02% | 100% | conservative real re-anchor |
P2_BALANCED | t300 · sep700 · m15 · same5 | +$28.17 | +$5.01 | 2.43% | 100% | balanced real re-anchor |
P3_AGGRESSIVE | t500 · sep500 · m30 · none | +$44.51 | +$12.12 | 4.30% | 100% | aggressive real re-anchor |
P4_MOONSHOT | t1300 · sep1300 · m20 · same3 | +$37.94 | ≈$0.00 | 1.22% | 100% | moonshot real re-anchor, mostly MTM |
P5_TINY_WALLET_BLAST | t1000 · sep1500 · m50 · same3 | +$109.59 | +$86.59 | 0.70% | 100% | tiny-wallet all-risk branch |
Mega Rescue Stress completed after memory patches. It confirms upside, but also shows re-anchor is profile-specific: P1 preferred a matched no-reanchor control.
| Profile | Best tuple | MTM PnL | Realized PnL | Wallet DD | Survival | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P0_SURVIVAL_MAX | t300 · sep500 · m10 · flat5 | +$37.02 | +$0.49 | 3.90% | 100% | real re-anchor |
P1_CONSERVATIVE | t300 · sep300 · no-reanchor control | +$34.49 | +$13.12 | 1.41% | 100% | matched control wins this profile |
P2_BALANCED | t500 · sep700 · m12 · same3 | +$113.28 | +$6.96 | 8.17% | 100% | real re-anchor |
P3_AGGRESSIVE | t1000 · sep500 · m20 · none | +$163.29 | +$17.62 | 8.95% | 100% | real re-anchor |
P4_MOONSHOT | t500 · sep1300 · m20 · same3 | +$133.14 | +$3.16 | 10.36% | 100% | real re-anchor |
P5_TINY_WALLET_BLAST | t1000 · sep1500 · m50 · same3 | +$461.62 | +$364.51 | 0.92% | 100% | largest upside branch |
v1.1 found the right idea and the right bug: after feed-forward, policy names survived while actual re-anchor/mega flags could disappear. v1.2 was built to test exactly that failure mode.
uses_reanchor matched reanchor_enabled; uses_mega matched mega_rescue_enabled.| Root | Rows | Leaderboard | Acceptance | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SMOKE | 48 | 24 | PASS | fast sanity check |
BROAD_SCOUT | 1,760 | 220 | PASS | discovery |
STANDARD_FEED | 792 | 66 | PASS | first feed-forward proof stage |
LONG_FEED | 1,320 | 66 | PASS | longer replay feed |
LONGER_FEED | 1,848 | 66 | PASS | larger validation feed |
DEEP_VALIDATION | 2,640 | 66 | PASS | deep validation |
FRESH_VALIDATION | 2,640 | 66 | PASS | fresh seed validation |
WALLET_STRESS | 1,980 | 66 | PASS | wallet/silo risk |
REANCHOR_PROFILE_STRESS | 12,600 | 300 | PASS | profile-specific re-anchor search |
MEGA_RESCUE_STRESS | 6,480 | 180 | PASS | huge rescue stress |
FEED_FORWARD_EVENT_INTEGRITY_AUDIT | 48 | 48 | PASS | final proof gate |
| Stage | Base-core only | External adapter | Main attribution |
|---|---|---|---|
WALLET_STRESS | 66/66 | 0/66 | 45 rows: re-anchor losing leg + snap-average huge add + excess close + wallet sizing. |
MEGA_RESCUE_STRESS | 180/180 | 0/180 | 83 rows: re-anchor + snap-average huge add + excess close + wallet sizing; PiX/Fib gates are minority candidates. |
INTEGRITY_AUDIT | 48/48 | 0/48 | Confirms base-core HSR/PiX position-management lineage, not SM/ZZ/DCC adapters. |
Interim snapshot from LIVE_EXTRACT_HSR_PIX_REAL1M_V13_FOR_GPT_20260615_195814.zip. This is not a final verdict; it is a running lab note while the long optimizer continues.
RUNNING_PARTIAL.| Area | Interim finding | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Data basis | 236,161 rows per symbol, 2026-01-01 → 2026-06-14 UTC, BTC/ETH/SOL 1m. | The real-data layer is healthy enough for a serious optimizer. |
| Controls pressure | Candidate rows: 4,219; control rows: 16,872; candidate beats-control rows: 340. | Most mutations still lose to controls. That is good discipline, not bad news. |
| Survival / positivity | Candidate survival ≈78.8%; candidate positive rows ≈62.7%; controls survival ≈83.5%. | Candidate search is not free money; risk filtering still matters. |
| Robust early hits | 9 candidate configs currently beat matched controls in all 6 tests: BTC/ETH/SOL × zero/realistic cost. | Promising enough to continue, but still only 7% of the planned run. |
| Best practical read | P1/P0/P2 candidates look more useful than raw moonshot rows because they keep drawdown and margin pressure lower. | Do not promote the biggest PnL row automatically. |
These are examples from the partial run. They are useful for monitoring, not for locking manual settings yet.
| Risk profile | Candidate short name | Beat rate | Avg MTM | Max wallet DD | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P1_CONSERVATIVE | p1_t1000_sep1500_m20_b0p1786_same3 | 6/6 | +$69.25 | 6.01% | Best early practical candidate: conservative label, positive min realized, low margin pressure. |
P0_SURVIVAL_MAX | p0_t1000_sep500_m12_b0p55_same3 | 6/6 | +$52.45 | 8.95% | Good survival-first watchlist branch. |
P2_BALANCED | p2_t500_sep1300_m15_b1p0_same5 | 6/6 | +$148.84 | 16.88% | Higher upside, higher drawdown; candidate for balanced risk profile. |
P4_MOONSHOT | p4_t1600_sep900_m10_b1p35_flat5 | 6/6 | +$247.11 | 45.32% | Promising but high-risk; keep it labelled moonshot. |
P5_TINY_WALLET_BLAST | p5_t200_sep2000_m8_b0p8573_same5 | 6/6 | +$365.82 | 49.26% | High upside, intentionally all-risk; not a conservative setting. |
The cleanest single-scenario result. MTM = realized PnL + ending unrealized PnL. This avoids the trap where realized profit hides an open losing leg.
Sum across all test replays/scenarios for that strategy. This often reaches thousands, but it is not a live account-equity curve because scenarios are test cases, not sequential trading days.
Older v0.6.4 tables scaled strategies to a chosen risk budget. This is why you remember several-thousand-dollar results. It is useful, but only if survival and capital-at-risk are shown beside it.
These tables now include the completed v0.9 STANDARD all-s240 run. Smoke remains wiring-only; the v0.9 standard run is the first meaningful v0.9 profit/risk evidence. Deep/weekend validation is still pending.
Risk ignored here. This is the table you asked for: from most profit to least profit. It includes Median MTM $, Mean MTM $, and Σ test MTM $.
| Stage | Family | Strategy | Control? | Fidelity | Runs | Start cap | Median MTM $ | Mean MTM $ | Σ test MTM $ | Median realized $ | Median unrealized $ | Max open loss $ | Median $ / $10k cap | Survival |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | large_runner | v07e_v064_large_runner_core_0000_3394a6c6 · demon | False | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | $12.68 | $12.71 | $3,050.17 | $0.00 | $12.68 | $17.10 | $0.13 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | large_runner | v07e_v064_large_runner_core_0000_3394a6c6 · classic | False | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | $12.68 | $12.71 | $3,050.17 | $0.00 | $12.68 | $17.10 | $0.13 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_simple_ladder_0000_e4e2811d · classic | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $11.01 | $8.84 | $6,363.45 | $77.85 | -$66.07 | $141.13 | $0.11 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_simple_ladder_0000_e4e2811d · demon | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $11.01 | $8.84 | $6,363.45 | $77.85 | -$66.07 | $141.13 | $0.11 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | newstuff | v07e_v061_newstuff_first_0000_10450fe0 · classic | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.74 | $8.52 | $6,132.81 | $95.18 | -$94.95 | $202.01 | $0.01 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | newstuff | v07e_v061_newstuff_first_0000_10450fe0 · demon | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.74 | $8.52 | $6,132.81 | $95.18 | -$94.95 | $202.01 | $0.01 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | zigzag_reversion | v08_zz_partial_swing_exit_adapter_0001_9383e18c · classic | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.08 | -$16.08 | $17.07 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | zigzag_reversion | v08_zz_partial_swing_exit_adapter_0001_9383e18c · demon | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.08 | -$16.08 | $17.07 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | controls | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d · classic | False | control | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $1.65 | $395.54 | $141.05 | -$140.14 | $163.35 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | controls | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d · demon | False | control | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $1.65 | $395.54 | $141.05 | -$140.14 | $163.35 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | mdl_dcc_predictor | v08_dcc_partial_signal_stream_adapter_0002_044c1d85 · demon | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.20 | -$16.20 | $17.07 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | mdl_dcc_predictor | v08_dcc_partial_signal_stream_adapter_0002_044c1d85 · classic | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.20 | -$16.20 | $17.07 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | smart_invert | v08_smart_invert_partial_polarity_adapter_0003_37dcd15c · demon | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.20 | -$16.20 | $17.07 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | smart_invert | v08_smart_invert_partial_polarity_adapter_0003_37dcd15c · classic | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.20 | -$16.20 | $17.07 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | bd_delayed_add | v08_bd_delayed_add_governor_watch_0006_50dbcd6d · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.50 | -$16.50 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | bd_delayed_add | v08_bd_delayed_add_governor_watch_0006_50dbcd6d · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.50 | -$16.50 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | chart_stack | v08_chart_stack_context_adapter_0005_30ffc343 · classic | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.50 | -$16.50 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | chart_stack | v08_chart_stack_context_adapter_0005_30ffc343 · demon | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.50 | -$16.50 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | fractal_coherence | v08_fractal_coherence_leg_nesting_adapter_0004_74ab5005 · demon | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.50 | -$16.50 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | fractal_coherence | v08_fractal_coherence_leg_nesting_adapter_0004_74ab5005 · classic | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.50 | -$16.50 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d · demon | False | control | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $2.16 | $1,556.76 | $140.59 | -$139.77 | $163.75 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d · classic | False | control | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $2.16 | $1,556.76 | $140.59 | -$139.77 | $163.75 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | zigzag_reversion | v08_zz_partial_swing_exit_adapter_0001_9383e18c · classic | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.35 | -$141.35 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | zigzag_reversion | v08_zz_partial_swing_exit_adapter_0001_9383e18c · demon | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.35 | -$141.35 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | sync_momentum | v08_sync_true_proxy_direction_adapter_0000_0e1f17bf · demon | False | proxy | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.29 | -$141.29 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | sync_momentum | v08_sync_true_proxy_direction_adapter_0000_0e1f17bf · classic | False | proxy | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.29 | -$141.29 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_add_adverse_on_absorption_c1ffba70 · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.46 | -$8.46 | $8.94 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_add_adverse_on_absorption_c1ffba70 · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.46 | -$8.46 | $8.94 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | smart_invert | v08_smart_invert_partial_polarity_adapter_0003_37dcd15c · demon | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.25 | -$141.25 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | smart_invert | v08_smart_invert_partial_polarity_adapter_0003_37dcd15c · classic | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.25 | -$141.25 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | mdl_dcc_predictor | v08_dcc_partial_signal_stream_adapter_0002_044c1d85 · demon | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.32 | -$141.32 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | mdl_dcc_predictor | v08_dcc_partial_signal_stream_adapter_0002_044c1d85 · classic | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.32 | -$141.32 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_counter_punch_close_to_base_e1aa1eb4 · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $5,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.53 | -$8.53 | $9.02 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_counter_punch_close_to_base_e1aa1eb4 · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $5,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.53 | -$8.53 | $9.02 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
This ranks 100% survival non-negative strategies by lowest max open loss first. Flat controls appear because they are genuinely safe but not useful alpha.
| Stage | Family | Strategy | Control? | Fidelity | Runs | Start cap | Median MTM $ | Mean MTM $ | Σ test MTM $ | Median realized $ | Median unrealized $ | Max open loss $ | Median $ / $10k cap | Survival |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | controls | v07e_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_226bec81 · classic | True | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | controls | v07e_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_226bec81 · demon | True | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_726bb970 · classic | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_726bb970 · demon | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | controls | v07e_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_c7117ecb · classic | True | proxy | 2 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | controls | v07e_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_c7117ecb · demon | True | proxy | 2 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | large_runner | v07e_v064_large_runner_core_0000_475d92f3 · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | large_runner | v07e_v064_large_runner_core_0000_475d92f3 · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | volume_absorption | v07e_auto_000000 · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $7.51 | -$7.51 | $7.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | volume_absorption | v07e_auto_000000 · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $7.51 | -$7.51 | $7.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | controls | v07c_control_simple_ladder_0000_098a2ceb · classic | True | control | 2 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $7.83 | -$7.83 | $7.89 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | controls | v07c_control_simple_ladder_0000_098a2ceb · demon | True | control | 2 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $7.83 | -$7.83 | $7.89 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | controls | v09_sync_hedge_control_no_add_force_flatten_9ab61b6a · classic | True | control | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.14 | -$8.14 | $8.53 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | controls | v09_sync_hedge_control_no_add_force_flatten_9ab61b6a · demon | True | control | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.14 | -$8.14 | $8.53 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_keep_runner_after_rescue_43b30014 · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.14 | -$8.14 | $8.53 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_keep_runner_after_rescue_43b30014 · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.14 | -$8.14 | $8.53 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_momentum | v07e_sync_momentum_fast_tf_probe_0000_5b571d6f · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.19 | -$8.19 | $8.62 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_momentum | v07e_sync_momentum_fast_tf_probe_0000_5b571d6f · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.19 | -$8.19 | $8.62 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_add_profit_leg_d9c4dea7 · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.30 | -$8.30 | $8.77 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_add_profit_leg_d9c4dea7 · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.30 | -$8.30 | $8.77 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | controls | v09_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_v09_control_43b0a324 · classic | True | control | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.26 | -$8.26 | $8.83 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | controls | v09_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_v09_control_43b0a324 · demon | True | control | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.26 | -$8.26 | $8.83 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_add_adverse_on_absorption_c1ffba70 · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.46 | -$8.46 | $8.94 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_add_adverse_on_absorption_c1ffba70 · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.46 | -$8.46 | $8.94 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
This favors positive median MTM and low max open loss. It is a practical “profit/risk” view, not pure profit.
| Stage | Family | Strategy | Control? | Fidelity | Runs | Start cap | Median MTM $ | Mean MTM $ | Σ test MTM $ | Median realized $ | Median unrealized $ | Max open loss $ | Median $ / $10k cap | Survival |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | large_runner | v07e_v064_large_runner_core_0000_3394a6c6 · classic | False | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | $12.68 | $12.71 | $3,050.17 | $0.00 | $12.68 | $17.10 | $0.13 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | large_runner | v07e_v064_large_runner_core_0000_3394a6c6 · demon | False | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | $12.68 | $12.71 | $3,050.17 | $0.00 | $12.68 | $17.10 | $0.13 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_simple_ladder_0000_e4e2811d · classic | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $11.01 | $8.84 | $6,363.45 | $77.85 | -$66.07 | $141.13 | $0.11 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_simple_ladder_0000_e4e2811d · demon | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $11.01 | $8.84 | $6,363.45 | $77.85 | -$66.07 | $141.13 | $0.11 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | newstuff | v07e_v061_newstuff_first_0000_10450fe0 · classic | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.74 | $8.52 | $6,132.81 | $95.18 | -$94.95 | $202.01 | $0.01 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | newstuff | v07e_v061_newstuff_first_0000_10450fe0 · demon | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.74 | $8.52 | $6,132.81 | $95.18 | -$94.95 | $202.01 | $0.01 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | zigzag_reversion | v08_zz_partial_swing_exit_adapter_0001_9383e18c · demon | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.08 | -$16.08 | $17.07 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | zigzag_reversion | v08_zz_partial_swing_exit_adapter_0001_9383e18c · classic | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.08 | -$16.08 | $17.07 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_add_adverse_on_absorption_c1ffba70 · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.46 | -$8.46 | $8.94 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_add_adverse_on_absorption_c1ffba70 · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.46 | -$8.46 | $8.94 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | mdl_dcc_predictor | v08_dcc_partial_signal_stream_adapter_0002_044c1d85 · classic | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.20 | -$16.20 | $17.07 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | mdl_dcc_predictor | v08_dcc_partial_signal_stream_adapter_0002_044c1d85 · demon | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.20 | -$16.20 | $17.07 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | smart_invert | v08_smart_invert_partial_polarity_adapter_0003_37dcd15c · classic | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.20 | -$16.20 | $17.07 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | smart_invert | v08_smart_invert_partial_polarity_adapter_0003_37dcd15c · demon | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.20 | -$16.20 | $17.07 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_counter_punch_close_to_base_e1aa1eb4 · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $5,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.53 | -$8.53 | $9.02 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_counter_punch_close_to_base_e1aa1eb4 · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $5,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.53 | -$8.53 | $9.02 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | fractal_coherence | v08_fractal_coherence_leg_nesting_adapter_0004_74ab5005 · classic | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.50 | -$16.50 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | fractal_coherence | v08_fractal_coherence_leg_nesting_adapter_0004_74ab5005 · demon | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.50 | -$16.50 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | chart_stack | v08_chart_stack_context_adapter_0005_30ffc343 · demon | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.50 | -$16.50 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | chart_stack | v08_chart_stack_context_adapter_0005_30ffc343 · classic | False | partial | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.50 | -$16.50 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | bd_delayed_add | v08_bd_delayed_add_governor_watch_0006_50dbcd6d · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.50 | -$16.50 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | bd_delayed_add | v08_bd_delayed_add_governor_watch_0006_50dbcd6d · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.50 | -$16.50 | $17.69 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_add_profit_leg_d9c4dea7 · demon | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.30 | -$8.30 | $8.77 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.9 ALLSMOKE corrected | sync_hedge_microstructure | v09_sync_hedge_add_profit_leg_d9c4dea7 · classic | False | proxy | 2 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.30 | -$8.30 | $8.77 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
This is why the current evidence is not literally only $13. Example: v0.8 STANDARD Large Runner sums to thousands across scenarios. Do not treat this as live cumulative profit.
| Stage | Family | Strategy | Control? | Fidelity | Runs | Start cap | Median MTM $ | Mean MTM $ | Σ test MTM $ | Median realized $ | Median unrealized $ | Max open loss $ | Median $ / $10k cap | Survival |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | mdl_dcc_predictor | v07e_mdl_dcc_inverse_probe_0000_d133f622 · demon | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | -$34.81 | $18.73 | $13,482.89 | $115.85 | -$151.39 | $2,104.45 | -$0.35 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | mdl_dcc_predictor | v07e_mdl_dcc_inverse_probe_0000_d133f622 · classic | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | -$34.81 | $18.73 | $13,482.89 | $115.85 | -$151.39 | $2,104.45 | -$0.35 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_simple_ladder_0000_e4e2811d · classic | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $11.01 | $8.84 | $6,363.45 | $77.85 | -$66.07 | $141.13 | $0.11 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_simple_ladder_0000_e4e2811d · demon | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $11.01 | $8.84 | $6,363.45 | $77.85 | -$66.07 | $141.13 | $0.11 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | newstuff | v07e_v061_newstuff_first_0000_10450fe0 · classic | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.74 | $8.52 | $6,132.81 | $95.18 | -$94.95 | $202.01 | $0.01 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | newstuff | v07e_v061_newstuff_first_0000_10450fe0 · demon | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.74 | $8.52 | $6,132.81 | $95.18 | -$94.95 | $202.01 | $0.01 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | large_runner | v07e_v064_large_runner_core_0000_3394a6c6 · demon | False | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | $12.68 | $12.71 | $3,050.17 | $0.00 | $12.68 | $17.10 | $0.13 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | large_runner | v07e_v064_large_runner_core_0000_3394a6c6 · classic | False | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | $12.68 | $12.71 | $3,050.17 | $0.00 | $12.68 | $17.10 | $0.13 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | sync_momentum | v07e_sync_momentum_probe_basic_0000_19cfd8ed · demon | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | -$1.98 | $2.39 | $1,719.48 | $83.10 | -$84.30 | $147.18 | -$0.02 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | sync_momentum | v07e_sync_momentum_probe_basic_0000_19cfd8ed · classic | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | -$1.98 | $2.39 | $1,719.48 | $83.10 | -$84.30 | $147.18 | -$0.02 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | sync_momentum | v07e_sync_momentum_strict_feed_future_0000_b0531446 · classic | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | -$1.98 | $2.39 | $1,719.48 | $83.10 | -$84.30 | $147.18 | -$0.02 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | sync_momentum | v07e_sync_momentum_strict_feed_future_0000_b0531446 · demon | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | -$1.98 | $2.39 | $1,719.48 | $83.10 | -$84.30 | $147.18 | -$0.02 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | sync_momentum | v07e_sync_momentum_impulse_probe_0000_40a7ea7d · demon | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | -$1.98 | $2.39 | $1,719.48 | $83.10 | -$84.30 | $147.18 | -$0.02 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | sync_momentum | v07e_sync_momentum_impulse_probe_0000_40a7ea7d · classic | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | -$1.98 | $2.39 | $1,719.48 | $83.10 | -$84.30 | $147.18 | -$0.02 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | sync_momentum | v07e_sync_momentum_trailing_probe_0000_0ad601b8 · demon | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | -$1.98 | $2.39 | $1,719.48 | $83.10 | -$84.30 | $147.18 | -$0.02 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | sync_momentum | v07e_sync_momentum_trailing_probe_0000_0ad601b8 · classic | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | -$1.98 | $2.39 | $1,719.48 | $83.10 | -$84.30 | $147.18 | -$0.02 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d · demon | False | control | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $2.16 | $1,556.76 | $140.59 | -$139.77 | $163.75 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d · classic | False | control | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $2.16 | $1,556.76 | $140.59 | -$139.77 | $163.75 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | volume_absorption | v07e_auto_000000 · classic | False | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | -$1.00 | $3.57 | $857.71 | $83.18 | -$83.80 | $147.02 | -$0.01 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | volume_absorption | v07e_auto_000000 · demon | False | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | -$1.00 | $3.57 | $857.71 | $83.18 | -$83.80 | $147.02 | -$0.01 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | controls | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d · classic | False | control | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $1.65 | $395.54 | $141.05 | -$140.14 | $163.35 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | controls | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d · demon | False | control | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $1.65 | $395.54 | $141.05 | -$140.14 | $163.35 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | sync_momentum | v07e_sync_momentum_slow_tf_probe_0000_745c19c4 · classic | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | -$0.52 | $0.03 | $21.27 | $68.51 | -$68.86 | $97.62 | -$0.01 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | sync_momentum | v07e_sync_momentum_slow_tf_probe_0000_745c19c4 · demon | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | -$0.52 | $0.03 | $21.27 | $68.51 | -$68.86 | $97.62 | -$0.01 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | smart_invert | v08_smart_invert_partial_polarity_adapter_0003_37dcd15c · demon | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.25 | -$141.25 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | smart_invert | v08_smart_invert_partial_polarity_adapter_0003_37dcd15c · classic | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.25 | -$141.25 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | bd_delayed_add | v08_bd_delayed_add_governor_watch_0006_50dbcd6d · classic | False | proxy | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.05 | -$141.05 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | bd_delayed_add | v08_bd_delayed_add_governor_watch_0006_50dbcd6d · demon | False | proxy | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.05 | -$141.05 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
This shows the raw high-upside/moonshot numbers. These are the numbers that make the $13 view look absurd, but survival/risk must be read.
| Stage | Surface | Strategy | Risk tier | Survival | Median raw $ | Mean raw $ | Max open loss $ | Est. $ @ $10k risk | Positive % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000051_sh2_266_moon_keep_4x_base_p0p03 | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,476,488 | $2,103,365 | $4,279,247 | $3,450.35 | 60.0% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000041_sh2_266_moon_keep_4x_base_p0p03 | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,476,488 | $2,090,611 | $4,279,247 | $3,450.35 | 60.0% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000031_sh2_266_moon_keep_4x_base_p0p03 | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,476,488 | $2,142,884 | $4,279,247 | $3,450.35 | 60.0% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000033_sh2_266_moon_keep_13x_base_p0p… | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,458,676 | $2,098,495 | $4,279,239 | $3,408.73 | 65.0% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000044_sh2_266_moon_keep_threshold_p0… | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,458,676 | $2,097,679 | $4,279,239 | $3,408.73 | 65.0% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000043_sh2_266_moon_keep_13x_base_p0p… | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,458,676 | $2,097,679 | $4,279,239 | $3,408.73 | 65.0% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000034_sh2_266_moon_keep_threshold_p0… | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,458,676 | $2,098,495 | $4,279,239 | $3,408.73 | 65.0% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000053_sh2_266_moon_keep_13x_base_p0p… | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,458,372 | $2,069,195 | $4,279,239 | $3,408.02 | 65.0% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000054_sh2_266_moon_keep_threshold_p0… | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,458,372 | $2,069,195 | $4,279,239 | $3,408.02 | 65.0% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000021_sh2_266_moon_keep_4x_base_p0p03 | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,355,639 | $1,879,623 | $2,917,289 | $4,646.91 | 70.8% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000111_sh2_266_moon_keep_4x_base_p0p03 | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,350,736 | $1,875,574 | $2,917,227 | $4,630.21 | 70.8% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000001_sh2_266_moon_keep_4x_base_p0p03 | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,321,174 | $1,866,923 | $2,917,289 | $4,528.77 | 70.8% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000011_sh2_266_moon_keep_4x_base_p0p03 | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,321,174 | $1,866,989 | $2,917,289 | $4,528.77 | 70.8% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner high upside | v064_large_runner_high_upside_000091_sh2_266_moon_keep_4x_base_p0p03 | moonshot_high_risk | 67.5% | $1,316,208 | $1,862,878 | $2,917,227 | $4,511.85 | 70.8% |
Top scaled profit view. Notice that the absolute top rows can be account-killer despite huge scaled profit.
| Stage | Surface | Strategy | Risk tier | Survival | Median raw $ | Mean raw $ | Max open loss $ | Est. $ @ $10k risk | Positive % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000016_sh2_113_core_keep_8x_base_p0p03 | account_killer | 0.0% | $147,023.90 | $196,899.77 | $114,045.05 | $12,891.74 | 99.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000007_sh2_113_core_keep_threshold_p0p03 | account_killer | 0.0% | $147,023.90 | $196,914.91 | $114,045.05 | $12,891.74 | 99.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000004_sh2_113_core_keep_8x_base_p0p03 | account_killer | 0.0% | $147,023.90 | $196,914.91 | $114,045.05 | $12,891.74 | 99.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000019_sh2_113_core_keep_threshold_p0p03 | account_killer | 0.0% | $147,023.90 | $196,899.77 | $114,045.05 | $12,891.74 | 99.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000015_sh2_113_core_keep_4x_base_p0p03 | account_killer | 0.0% | $142,020.99 | $200,031.90 | $113,734.93 | $12,487.02 | 99.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000018_sh2_113_core_keep_half_threshold_p0p03 | account_killer | 0.0% | $142,020.99 | $200,031.90 | $113,734.93 | $12,487.02 | 99.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000003_sh2_113_core_keep_4x_base_p0p03 | account_killer | 0.0% | $142,020.99 | $200,125.74 | $113,734.93 | $12,487.02 | 99.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000006_sh2_113_core_keep_half_threshold_p0p03 | account_killer | 0.0% | $142,020.99 | $200,125.74 | $113,734.93 | $12,487.02 | 99.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000013_sh2_113_core_keep_base_control_p0p03 | account_killer | 0.0% | $140,725.34 | $214,105.49 | $117,190.78 | $12,008.23 | 98.3% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000001_sh2_113_core_keep_base_control_p0p03 | account_killer | 0.0% | $140,473.11 | $214,103.41 | $117,190.78 | $11,986.70 | 98.3% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000014_sh2_113_core_keep_2x_base_p0p03 | account_killer | 0.0% | $123,453.58 | $200,468.90 | $113,734.95 | $10,854.50 | 99.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000002_sh2_113_core_keep_2x_base_p0p03 | account_killer | 0.0% | $123,453.58 | $200,472.04 | $113,734.95 | $10,854.50 | 99.2% |
This is the fairer version of the “we had thousands” memory: still thousands, but with survival filter applied.
| Stage | Surface | Strategy | Risk tier | Survival | Median raw $ | Mean raw $ | Max open loss $ | Est. $ @ $10k risk | Positive % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0381_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $9,248.20 | $17,884.80 | $29,582.42 | $3,126.25 | 68.3% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0382_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $9,248.20 | $17,884.80 | $29,582.42 | $3,126.25 | 68.3% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 core | v062_v062_sh2_core_0095_sh2_113_core | moonshot_high_risk | 100.0% | $119,766.65 | $395,349.72 | $393,015.42 | $3,047.38 | 71.7% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 core | v062_v062_sh2_core_0096_sh2_113_core | moonshot_high_risk | 100.0% | $119,766.65 | $395,349.72 | $393,015.42 | $3,047.38 | 71.7% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000185_sh2_113_core_keep_13x_base_p0p03 | moonshot_high_risk | 100.0% | $75,091.92 | $173,620.37 | $248,464.52 | $3,022.24 | 58.3% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000173_sh2_113_core_keep_13x_base_p0p03 | moonshot_high_risk | 100.0% | $75,091.92 | $173,620.37 | $248,464.52 | $3,022.24 | 58.3% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0350_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $9,171.31 | $15,431.31 | $32,396.53 | $2,830.95 | 64.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0349_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $9,171.31 | $15,431.31 | $32,396.53 | $2,830.95 | 64.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000170_sh2_113_core_keep_2x_base_p0p03 | moonshot_high_risk | 100.0% | $67,909.82 | $181,314.94 | $244,660.47 | $2,775.68 | 59.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v064 large runner core | v064_large_runner_core_000182_sh2_113_core_keep_2x_base_p0p03 | moonshot_high_risk | 100.0% | $67,909.82 | $181,314.94 | $244,660.47 | $2,775.68 | 59.2% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0342_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $8,745.36 | $13,571.53 | $32,254.19 | $2,711.39 | 61.7% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0341_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $8,745.36 | $13,571.53 | $32,254.19 | $2,711.39 | 61.7% |
Survived rows only, ranked internally by scaled profit versus open-loss pressure. These remain useful seeds for v0.9 logic.
| Stage | Surface | Strategy | Risk tier | Survival | Median raw $ | Mean raw $ | Max open loss $ | Est. $ @ $10k risk | Positive % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0237_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $5,053.78 | $10,395.53 | $19,046.51 | $2,653.39 | 67.5% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0238_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $5,053.78 | $10,395.53 | $19,046.51 | $2,653.39 | 67.5% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0286_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $4,271.64 | $10,705.03 | $18,946.39 | $2,254.59 | 63.3% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0285_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $4,271.64 | $10,705.03 | $18,946.39 | $2,254.59 | 63.3% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0381_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $9,248.20 | $17,884.80 | $29,582.42 | $3,126.25 | 68.3% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0382_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $9,248.20 | $17,884.80 | $29,582.42 | $3,126.25 | 68.3% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0278_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $4,211.16 | $9,197.73 | $18,946.39 | $2,222.67 | 60.0% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0277_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $4,211.16 | $9,197.73 | $18,946.39 | $2,222.67 | 60.0% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0254_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $3,818.22 | $9,400.94 | $18,254.29 | $2,091.69 | 60.8% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0253_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $3,818.22 | $9,400.94 | $18,254.29 | $2,091.69 | 60.8% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0366_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $8,051.89 | $16,340.33 | $29,978.51 | $2,685.89 | 68.3% |
| v0.6.4 weekend | v062 sh2 efficiency | v062_v062_sh2_efficiency_0365_sh2_288_eff | large_bankroll | 100.0% | $8,051.89 | $16,340.33 | $29,978.51 | $2,685.89 | 68.3% |
Large Runner was the best non-control median-profit row here; median was small but Σ test MTM was above $3k.
| Stage | Family | Strategy | Control? | Fidelity | Runs | Start cap | Median MTM $ | Mean MTM $ | Σ test MTM $ | Median realized $ | Median unrealized $ | Max open loss $ | Median $ / $10k cap | Survival |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | large_runner | v07e_v064_large_runner_core_0000_3394a6c6 · demon | False | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | $12.68 | $12.71 | $3,050.17 | $0.00 | $12.68 | $17.10 | $0.13 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | large_runner | v07e_v064_large_runner_core_0000_3394a6c6 · classic | False | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | $12.68 | $12.71 | $3,050.17 | $0.00 | $12.68 | $17.10 | $0.13 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | controls | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d · demon | False | control | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $1.65 | $395.54 | $141.05 | -$140.14 | $163.35 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | controls | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d · classic | False | control | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $1.65 | $395.54 | $141.05 | -$140.14 | $163.35 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | mdl_dcc_predictor | v08_dcc_partial_signal_stream_adapter_0002_044c1d85 · demon | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.32 | -$141.32 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | mdl_dcc_predictor | v08_dcc_partial_signal_stream_adapter_0002_044c1d85 · classic | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.32 | -$141.32 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | sync_momentum | v08_sync_true_proxy_direction_adapter_0000_0e1f17bf · classic | False | proxy | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.29 | -$141.29 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | sync_momentum | v08_sync_true_proxy_direction_adapter_0000_0e1f17bf · demon | False | proxy | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.29 | -$141.29 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | zigzag_reversion | v08_zz_partial_swing_exit_adapter_0001_9383e18c · demon | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.35 | -$141.35 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | zigzag_reversion | v08_zz_partial_swing_exit_adapter_0001_9383e18c · classic | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.35 | -$141.35 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | smart_invert | v08_smart_invert_partial_polarity_adapter_0003_37dcd15c · classic | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.25 | -$141.25 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | smart_invert | v08_smart_invert_partial_polarity_adapter_0003_37dcd15c · demon | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.25 | -$141.25 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | controls | v07e_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_226bec81 · classic | True | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | controls | v07e_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_226bec81 · demon | True | proxy | 240 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | bd_delayed_add | v08_bd_delayed_add_governor_watch_0006_50dbcd6d · demon | False | proxy | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.05 | -$141.05 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | bd_delayed_add | v08_bd_delayed_add_governor_watch_0006_50dbcd6d · classic | False | proxy | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.05 | -$141.05 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | chart_stack | v08_chart_stack_context_adapter_0005_30ffc343 · classic | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.19 | -$141.19 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | chart_stack | v08_chart_stack_context_adapter_0005_30ffc343 · demon | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.19 | -$141.19 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | fractal_coherence | v08_fractal_coherence_leg_nesting_adapter_0004_74ab5005 · classic | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.19 | -$141.19 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | fractal_coherence | v08_fractal_coherence_leg_nesting_adapter_0004_74ab5005 · demon | False | partial | 240 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.19 | -$141.19 | $161.79 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | microscalp_rescue | v07e_micro_control_no_rescue_0000_7a500438 · classic | False | proxy | 240 | $1,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.50 | -$141.50 | $162.48 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 STANDARD all s240 | microscalp_rescue | v07e_micro_control_no_rescue_0000_7a500438 · demon | False | proxy | 240 | $1,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $141.50 | -$141.50 | $162.48 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
Simple ladder control was the top median-profit representative; therefore v0.9 must keep simple_ladder and same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc as hard controls.
| Stage | Family | Strategy | Control? | Fidelity | Runs | Start cap | Median MTM $ | Mean MTM $ | Σ test MTM $ | Median realized $ | Median unrealized $ | Max open loss $ | Median $ / $10k cap | Survival |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_simple_ladder_0000_e4e2811d · classic | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $11.01 | $8.84 | $6,363.45 | $77.85 | -$66.07 | $141.13 | $0.11 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_simple_ladder_0000_e4e2811d · demon | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $11.01 | $8.84 | $6,363.45 | $77.85 | -$66.07 | $141.13 | $0.11 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | newstuff | v07e_v061_newstuff_first_0000_10450fe0 · classic | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.74 | $8.52 | $6,132.81 | $95.18 | -$94.95 | $202.01 | $0.01 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | newstuff | v07e_v061_newstuff_first_0000_10450fe0 · demon | False | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.74 | $8.52 | $6,132.81 | $95.18 | -$94.95 | $202.01 | $0.01 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d · demon | False | control | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $2.16 | $1,556.76 | $140.59 | -$139.77 | $163.75 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d · classic | False | control | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $2.16 | $1,556.76 | $140.59 | -$139.77 | $163.75 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_no_add_0000_455575d8 · classic | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $69.79 | -$69.79 | $81.17 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_no_add_0000_455575d8 · demon | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $69.79 | -$69.79 | $81.17 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_fixed_small_tp_0000_b509ae42 · classic | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $70.49 | -$70.49 | $81.24 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_fixed_small_tp_0000_b509ae42 · demon | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $70.49 | -$70.49 | $81.24 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_random_side_0000_09a01792 · demon | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $69.79 | -$69.79 | $81.17 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_random_side_0000_09a01792 · classic | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $69.79 | -$69.79 | $81.17 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | bd_delayed_add | v08_bd_delayed_add_governor_watch_0006_50dbcd6d · classic | False | proxy | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $140.60 | -$140.60 | $162.02 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | bd_delayed_add | v08_bd_delayed_add_governor_watch_0006_50dbcd6d · demon | False | proxy | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $140.60 | -$140.60 | $162.02 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | mdl_dcc_predictor | v08_dcc_partial_signal_stream_adapter_0002_044c1d85 · classic | False | partial | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | -$0.00 | -$0.00 | $140.69 | -$140.69 | $162.11 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | mdl_dcc_predictor | v08_dcc_partial_signal_stream_adapter_0002_044c1d85 · demon | False | partial | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | -$0.00 | -$0.00 | $140.69 | -$140.69 | $162.11 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | chart_stack | v08_chart_stack_context_adapter_0005_30ffc343 · classic | False | partial | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $140.60 | -$140.60 | $162.02 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | chart_stack | v08_chart_stack_context_adapter_0005_30ffc343 · demon | False | partial | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $140.60 | -$140.60 | $162.02 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | sync_momentum | v08_sync_true_proxy_direction_adapter_0000_0e1f17bf · classic | False | proxy | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | -$0.00 | -$0.00 | $140.58 | -$140.58 | $162.11 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | sync_momentum | v08_sync_true_proxy_direction_adapter_0000_0e1f17bf · demon | False | proxy | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | -$0.00 | -$0.00 | $140.58 | -$140.58 | $162.11 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | smart_invert | v08_smart_invert_partial_polarity_adapter_0003_37dcd15c · classic | False | partial | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | -$0.00 | -$0.00 | $140.62 | -$140.62 | $162.02 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | smart_invert | v08_smart_invert_partial_polarity_adapter_0003_37dcd15c · demon | False | partial | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | -$0.00 | -$0.00 | $140.62 | -$140.62 | $162.02 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_random_entry_0000_f2afac9c · classic | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $69.79 | -$69.79 | $81.17 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_random_entry_0000_f2afac9c · demon | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $69.79 | -$69.79 | $81.17 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_726bb970 · demon | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | controls | v07e_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_726bb970 · classic | True | proxy | 720 | $1,000,000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | zigzag_reversion | v08_zz_partial_swing_exit_adapter_0001_9383e18c · classic | False | partial | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $140.64 | -$140.64 | $162.11 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
| v0.8 DEEP p1_focus s720 | zigzag_reversion | v08_zz_partial_swing_exit_adapter_0001_9383e18c · demon | False | partial | 720 | $10,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $140.64 | -$140.64 | $162.11 | $0.00 | 100.0% |
v0.7c is the bridge between older high-upside v0.6.4 and stricter v0.8/P7. It already showed that large runner and sync momentum variants could produce positive MTM, but mostly at modest conservative levels in the newseed promoter run.
This is the conservative promoter-era view: mostly tens of dollars median MTM, not the older moonshot millions.
| Stage | Family | Strategy | Risk bucket | Survival | Median MTM $ | Mean final $ | Realized median $ | Ending unrealized $ | Open tail $ | Capital at risk $ | Profit/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.7c newseed promoter | mdl_dcc_predictor | v07c_mdl_dcc_inverse_probe_0000_db832aa4 | extreme | 100.0% | $183.14 | $97.27 | $206.26 | -$27.54 | $273.23 | $1,789.20 | 0.102 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | mdl_dcc_predictor | v07c_mdl_dcc_inverse_probe_0000_20d808b2 | extreme | 100.0% | $166.11 | $106.11 | $186.41 | -$29.16 | $274.29 | $2,143.77 | 0.077 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | mdl_dcc_predictor | v07c_mdl_dcc_inverse_probe_0002_f9208cc5 | extreme | 100.0% | $166.11 | $106.11 | $186.41 | -$29.16 | $274.29 | $2,143.77 | 0.077 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | mdl_dcc_predictor | v07c_mdl_dcc_inverse_probe_0001_bd76488a | extreme | 100.0% | $166.11 | $106.11 | $186.41 | -$29.16 | $274.29 | $2,143.77 | 0.077 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | large_runner | v07c_v064_large_runner_high_upside_0001_c95f9a9a | medium | 100.0% | $16.85 | $16.97 | $0.00 | $16.85 | $0.00 | $44.21 | 0.381 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | sync_momentum | v07c_sync_momentum_impulse_probe_0002_170e9e02 | medium | 100.0% | $16.12 | $16.24 | $0.65 | $15.45 | $0.00 | $32.43 | 0.497 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | sync_momentum | v07c_sync_momentum_probe_basic_0002_e428f204 | medium | 100.0% | $16.12 | $16.24 | $0.65 | $15.45 | $0.00 | $32.43 | 0.497 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | sync_momentum | v07c_sync_momentum_strict_feed_future_0002_f38f2114 | medium | 100.0% | $16.12 | $16.24 | $0.65 | $15.45 | $0.00 | $32.43 | 0.497 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | sync_momentum | v07c_sync_momentum_trailing_probe_0002_6c018957 | medium | 100.0% | $16.12 | $16.24 | $0.65 | $15.45 | $0.00 | $32.43 | 0.497 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | large_runner | v07c_v064_large_runner_high_upside_0002_10a53909 | medium | 100.0% | $15.55 | $15.59 | $0.00 | $15.55 | $0.00 | $15.37 | 1.012 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | large_runner | v07c_v064_large_runner_mixed_0000_44f59ae0 | medium | 100.0% | $12.73 | $12.78 | $0.00 | $12.73 | $0.00 | $18.57 | 0.685 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | large_runner | v07c_v064_large_runner_core_0000_2cb4755c | medium | 100.0% | $12.73 | $12.78 | $0.00 | $12.73 | $0.00 | $18.57 | 0.685 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | large_runner | v07c_v064_large_runner_mixed_0000_f0520562 | medium | 100.0% | $12.69 | $12.73 | $0.00 | $12.69 | $0.00 | $18.59 | 0.683 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | large_runner | v07c_v064_large_runner_core_0000_581d8b77 | medium | 100.0% | $12.69 | $12.73 | $0.00 | $12.69 | $0.00 | $18.59 | 0.683 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | controls | v07c_control_simple_ladder_0000_8ae6927f | high | 100.0% | $12.59 | $10.13 | $78.64 | -$66.70 | $90.42 | $143.47 | 0.088 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | controls | v07c_control_simple_ladder_0002_c4dad49e | high | 100.0% | $12.59 | $10.13 | $78.64 | -$66.70 | $90.42 | $143.47 | 0.088 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | controls | v07c_control_simple_ladder_0001_fdb01895 | high | 100.0% | $12.59 | $10.13 | $78.64 | -$66.70 | $90.42 | $143.47 | 0.088 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | controls | v07c_control_simple_ladder_0001_afc9447a | high | 100.0% | $12.52 | $9.97 | $78.75 | -$66.97 | $90.10 | $142.66 | 0.088 |
Survival-filtered rows. Some are controls; some are candidate logic seeds.
| Stage | Family | Strategy | Risk bucket | Survival | Median MTM $ | Mean final $ | Realized median $ | Ending unrealized $ | Open tail $ | Capital at risk $ | Profit/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.7c newseed promoter | controls | v07c_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_ce98b645 | low | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2.97 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | controls | v07c_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0001_dfac28ee | low | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2.97 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | controls | v07c_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0002_01bc6dfa | low | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2.97 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | controls | v07c_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_dd5a8dc8 | low | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2.97 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | controls | v07c_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0001_d00962e4 | low | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2.97 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | controls | v07c_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0002_36b9f48d | low | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2.97 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | large_runner | v07c_v064_large_runner_core_0002_35f78809 | medium | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2.38 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | large_runner | v07c_v064_large_runner_efficiency_0000_1734c543 | medium | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $3.97 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | large_runner | v07c_v064_large_runner_efficiency_0001_38f8b1f4 | medium | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $3.97 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | large_runner | v07c_v064_large_runner_efficiency_0002_ce8838a9 | medium | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $3.97 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | large_runner | v07c_v064_large_runner_mixed_0002_186df08c | medium | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2.38 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | controls | v07c_control_buy_hold_style_if_meaningful_0000_08210e8a | low | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2.97 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | large_runner | v07c_v064_large_runner_efficiency_0000_f7fc5ca0 | medium | 100.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $3.97 | 0.000 |
| v0.7c newseed promoter | sync_momentum | v07c_sync_momentum_slow_tf_probe_0002_d8db28fa | medium | 100.0% | $6.35 | $6.37 | $0.00 | $6.35 | $0.00 | $12.68 | 0.501 |
Completed run: outputs_v09_STANDARD_all_s240_CORRECTED. This is the first meaningful v0.9 profit/risk test. It is still offline replay evidence, not a live trading claim.
| Rank lens | Strategy | Family | Mode | Start cap | Median MTM | Mean MTM | Σ test MTM | Median normalized return | Median realized | Median ending unrealized | Median max open loss | Stops / breaches | Survival |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best normalized | v09_sync_hedge_counter_punch_close_to_base_e1aa1eb4_classic | sync_hedge_microstructure | classic:240 | $5,000.00 | $18.40 | $19.87 | $4,767.85 | 0.367905% | $70.62 | $-52.34 | $93.84 | 0 / 0 | 100.0% |
| Demon-readonly twin | v09_sync_hedge_counter_punch_close_to_base_e1aa1eb4_demon | sync_hedge_microstructure | demon-readonly:240 | $5,000.00 | $18.40 | $19.87 | $4,767.85 | 0.367905% | $70.62 | $-52.34 | $93.84 | 0 / 0 | 100.0% |
This is the important “not fake absolute-wallet win” check. v0.9 winner beats controls on normalized return, not merely on raw wallet size.
| Item | Strategy | Median MTM | Median normalized return | Delta vs winner | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | v09_sync_hedge_counter_punch_close_to_base_e1aa1eb4_classic | $18.40 | 0.367905% | — | candidate for deep validation |
| Simple ladder hard-control | v07c_control_simple_ladder_0000_098a2ceb_classic | $10.74 | 0.001074% | winner +0.366831% | hard control; not promoted as alpha |
| Same-ladder no-sensor/no-DCC | v08_same_ladder_no_sensor_no_dcc_control_0007_fb15d50d_classic | $0.00 | 0.000000% | winner +0.367905% | hard control; anti-fake-win baseline |
| Large runner | v07e_v064_large_runner_core_0000_475d92f3_classic | $12.67 | 0.001267% | winner +0.366638% | watch/runner-slot candidate, not core alpha yet |
sync_hedge_counter_punch_close_to_base is the first v0.9 candidate that clearly beats the ladder controls under normalized ranking. It has 240/240 positive scenarios, zero stops, zero breaches, and coherent dual-book/hedge logic.
The run uses SOLUSDT real 2026 YTD daily OHLC plus synthetic/generated minute candles. It proves offline replay behavior under controlled scenarios. It does not prove live execution, exchange fills, orderbook/liquidation-map edge, or true synchronized BTC/ETH/SOL 1m/1s signal quality.
| Family / probe | Representative result | Why blocked or watch-only |
|---|---|---|
| MicroScalp Rescue | $-63.84 median MTM, -6.384%, stopped 240/240 | Too negative as alpha; keep as stress/rescue research. |
| Micro fixed x3 after ROE50 stall | $-64.56 median MTM, -6.456%, stopped 240/240 | Worse than guarded rescue; not promoted. |
| MDL-DCC confidence sizing probe | $-2,198.61 median MTM, -0.219861%, stopped 240/240 | DCC remains governor/veto/sizing research, not standalone alpha here. |
| ZigZag add/escape probe | $-143.49 median MTM, -0.014349% | Weak in this replay setup; not promoted. |
| Sync Momentum fast-TF probe | $-14.05 median MTM, -0.001405% | Not standalone alpha in this v0.9 replay. |
| Delayed-add | profit promotion count = 0 | P7 policy preserved: governor/watch only unless future fair-control evidence proves otherwise. |
| Demon-readonly | classic/demon paired rows tie on the winner | Trace/governor observation only, not alpha improvement in this run. |
v0.9 reports distinguish source logic truthfully: 4 implemented, 25 partial, 6 placeholder, and 1 deferred_missing_data. That is good: it prevents us from pretending that unavailable real 1s/1m/5m/orderbook data already exists.
The current project ZIP is Ultimate_BD_Trading_Arena_v0_9.zip. I verified it as a single-root full package with no PATCH1/PATCH2 leftovers, no __pycache__, corrected --cat all surface, hard controls, v0.8 evidence import, P7 policy import, and the resume-safe/progress-write fixes.
| Check | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| ZIP root | OK | Ultimate_BD_Trading_Arena_v0_9/ |
| Entries | 873 | Full package, including source files and accepted evidence artifacts. |
| compileall | PASS | Python compilation passed after extraction. |
| Resume checkpoint | PRESENT | task_results/task_results.jsonl with task-level skip-on-rerun logic. |
| Ctrl-C handling | PRESENT | Replay loop catches interruption, writes partial summary/resume state, and exits safely. |
| Windows progress lock fix | PRESENT | progress_state.json write is retried and non-fatal; fallback is progress_state.latest.json. |
| Patch leftovers | NONE | No PATCH1/PATCH2 filenames found. |
The old v0.9 weekend plan and the v1.1 caveat are now superseded by the completed HSR PiX v1.2 master run. The real-1m validation step has started: v1.3c is running a long deep optimizer on BTC/ETH/SOL 1m CSV data.
Preserve LIVE_EXTRACT_HSR_PIX_V12_FOR_GPT_20260615_002010.zip as the official v1.2 PASS extract.
Continue v1.3c deep optimizer: 10,000 candidates, matched controls, BTC/ETH/SOL, zero + realistic cost cases, resume/live extract enabled.
Only after real-1m replay survives should any paper/shadow workflow be considered. No API keys or live orders in the research arena.
Keep v1.3c real1m deep optimizer running. Use RUN_07_REAL1M_DEEP_LIVE_EXTRACT_FOR_GPT.bat daily or at major progress points.
After higher completion, triage survivor-first candidates that beat controls on realistic costs across BTC/ETH/SOL. Do not lock optimal settings from the 7% snapshot.